Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhejiang Tederic Machinery Co., Ltd. (603289.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$59.45 - $70.04$65.64
Multi-Stage$40.59 - $44.54$42.52
Blended Fair Value$54.08
Current Price$10.92
Upside395.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.46%10.72%0.160.160.200.200.180.180.090.050.030.03
YoY Growth--0.13%-20.87%0.56%10.84%0.00%101.21%97.07%48.89%1.06%-47.45%
Dividend Yield--1.81%1.73%1.84%1.98%2.31%2.34%0.74%0.35%0.35%0.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)104.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.9213.077.84
Cash Retained (M)57.7657.7657.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.92-13.07-7.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)36.8444.6949.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)296.72296.72296.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.150.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.150.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate5.40%6.40%7.40%
Fair Value$59.45$65.64$70.04
Upside / Downside444.38%501.06%541.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)104.60111.29118.41125.99134.05142.63146.90
Payout Ratio44.78%53.82%62.87%71.91%80.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.8359.9074.4490.60108.52128.36135.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate5.40%6.40%7.40%
Year 1 PV (M)58.0658.6159.16
Year 2 PV (M)69.9471.2772.62
Year 3 PV (M)82.5084.8787.29
Year 4 PV (M)95.7999.48103.27
Year 5 PV (M)109.83115.14120.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,626.3712,188.4812,772.12
Equity Value (M)12,042.4912,617.8413,215.10
Shares Outstanding (M)296.72296.72296.72
Fair Value$40.59$42.52$44.54
Upside / Downside271.66%289.42%307.85%

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