Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Xiantong Rubber&Plastic Co.,Ltd (603239.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$121.88 - $143.59$134.57
Multi-Stage$105.83 - $116.16$110.90
Blended Fair Value$122.73
Current Price$20.57
Upside496.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.30%11.90%0.320.320.500.350.500.300.500.200.170.14
YoY Growth--0.00%-36.03%42.85%-29.96%66.67%-40.00%149.02%16.15%27.68%30.27%
Dividend Yield--2.36%2.14%3.20%2.73%2.99%2.47%3.95%1.20%0.53%1.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)194.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)56.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)137.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38.8424.2814.57
Cash Retained (M)137.35137.35137.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-38.84-24.28-14.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)98.51113.08122.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)268.97268.97268.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.420.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.420.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.630.67
WACC / Discount Rate-2.63%-2.63%-2.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$121.88$134.57$143.59
Upside / Downside492.51%554.20%598.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)194.20206.83220.27234.59249.84266.08274.06
Payout Ratio29.27%41.42%53.56%65.71%77.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)56.8585.67117.99154.15194.51239.47253.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-2.63%-2.63%-2.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)87.1587.9888.80
Year 2 PV (M)122.11124.44126.79
Year 3 PV (M)162.30166.96171.71
Year 4 PV (M)208.35216.36224.60
Year 5 PV (M)260.95273.55286.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,624.3828,958.6530,343.98
Equity Value (M)28,465.2429,827.9331,242.51
Shares Outstanding (M)268.97268.97268.97
Fair Value$105.83$110.90$116.16
Upside / Downside414.49%439.12%464.69%

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