Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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HangZhou Nbond Nonwovens Co., Ltd. (603238.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$69.24 - $136.15$127.59
Multi-Stage$21.25 - $23.25$22.23
Blended Fair Value$74.91
Current Price$19.00
Upside294.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.13%0.00%0.300.100.080.400.350.120.070.080.020.04
YoY Growth--195.24%33.27%-81.13%14.97%181.01%84.98%-18.01%368.63%-50.64%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.97%0.86%0.65%3.43%1.93%0.76%0.50%0.55%0.06%0.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)121.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)58.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)63.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.3615.239.14
Cash Retained (M)63.2863.2863.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.36-15.23-9.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)38.9248.0554.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)177.92177.92177.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.270.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.270.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.600.63
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$69.24$127.59$136.15
Upside / Downside264.44%571.54%616.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)121.81129.72138.16147.14156.70166.89171.89
Payout Ratio48.05%56.44%64.83%73.22%81.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)58.5373.2289.57107.73127.88150.20159.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)68.2168.8569.50
Year 2 PV (M)77.7379.2180.71
Year 3 PV (M)87.1089.6092.15
Year 4 PV (M)96.32100.03103.84
Year 5 PV (M)105.39110.48115.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,345.943,507.553,675.34
Equity Value (M)3,780.703,955.734,137.31
Shares Outstanding (M)177.92177.92177.92
Fair Value$21.25$22.23$23.25
Upside / Downside11.84%17.01%22.39%

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