Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang E-P Equipment Co Ltd (603194.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$50.83 - $139.28$78.52
Multi-Stage$188.60 - $208.40$198.30
Blended Fair Value$138.41
Current Price$45.04
Upside207.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.040.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)875.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)256.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)619.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)175.06109.4165.65
Cash Retained (M)619.10619.10619.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-175.06-109.41-65.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)444.04509.69553.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)384.33384.33384.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.161.331.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.670.670.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.161.331.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.821.992.11
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$50.83$78.52$139.28
Upside / Downside12.86%74.33%209.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)875.28866.53857.86849.28840.79832.38857.35
Payout Ratio29.27%41.41%53.56%65.71%77.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)256.18358.87459.48558.04654.59749.14793.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)349.95353.52357.09
Year 2 PV (M)436.93445.89454.94
Year 3 PV (M)517.46533.47549.80
Year 4 PV (M)591.90616.44641.72
Year 5 PV (M)660.57694.97730.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)69,929.0873,570.4577,361.95
Equity Value (M)72,485.9076,214.7480,096.30
Shares Outstanding (M)384.33384.33384.33
Fair Value$188.60$198.30$208.40
Upside / Downside318.74%340.28%362.71%

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