Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Runben Biotechnology (603193.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.74 - $8.40$7.02
Multi-Stage$10.28 - $11.28$10.77
Blended Fair Value$8.90
Current Price$28.01
Upside-68.23%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.340.000.010.080.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-88.89%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.99%0.00%0.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)305.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)161.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)143.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)61.0738.1722.90
Cash Retained (M)143.56143.56143.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-61.07-38.17-22.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)82.50105.39120.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)403.67403.67403.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.260.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.260.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.610.660.70
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.74$7.02$8.40
Upside / Downside-79.50%-74.92%-70.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)305.33302.27299.25296.26293.29290.36299.07
Payout Ratio52.98%60.38%67.79%75.19%82.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)161.76182.53202.86222.76242.25261.33276.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)166.79168.50170.20
Year 2 PV (M)169.39172.87176.38
Year 3 PV (M)169.98175.24180.60
Year 4 PV (M)168.92175.92183.14
Year 5 PV (M)166.51175.18184.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,308.933,481.233,660.64
Equity Value (M)4,150.534,348.944,555.17
Shares Outstanding (M)403.67403.67403.67
Fair Value$10.28$10.77$11.28
Upside / Downside-63.29%-61.54%-59.71%

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