Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Huangma Technology Co.,Ltd (603181.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$101.21 - $156.53$146.70
Multi-Stage$25.57 - $28.00$26.76
Blended Fair Value$86.73
Current Price$18.87
Upside359.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.70%11.41%0.170.030.140.020.150.110.090.030.050.06
YoY Growth--501.05%-78.58%502.52%-85.20%44.75%22.14%169.02%-32.91%-20.84%1.56%
Dividend Yield--1.35%0.29%1.05%0.16%1.21%1.57%1.05%0.43%0.94%1.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)449.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)132.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)316.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)89.9256.2033.72
Cash Retained (M)316.86316.86316.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-89.92-56.20-33.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)226.94260.66283.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)571.21571.21571.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.460.50
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.460.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$101.21$146.70$156.53
Upside / Downside436.35%677.40%729.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)449.60478.83509.95543.10578.40616.00634.48
Payout Ratio29.53%41.62%53.72%65.81%77.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)132.75199.29273.92357.41450.60554.40586.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)185.97187.73189.49
Year 2 PV (M)238.53243.07247.66
Year 3 PV (M)290.43298.77307.26
Year 4 PV (M)341.68354.82368.34
Year 5 PV (M)392.29411.23430.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,156.8413,792.3214,452.12
Equity Value (M)14,605.7315,287.9415,995.78
Shares Outstanding (M)571.21571.21571.21
Fair Value$25.57$26.76$28.00
Upside / Downside35.50%41.83%48.40%

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