Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Goodix Technology Co., Ltd. (603160.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.75 - $8.91$7.88
Multi-Stage$12.74 - $14.08$13.40
Blended Fair Value$10.64
Current Price$82.61
Upside-87.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-15.84%1.57%0.210.040.220.440.790.490.590.380.220.21
YoY Growth--418.77%-81.42%-51.08%-43.94%59.75%-16.69%53.99%78.03%1.01%20.00%
Dividend Yield--0.28%0.07%0.38%0.62%0.70%0.19%0.54%0.42%0.23%0.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)832.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)186.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)645.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)166.44104.0262.41
Cash Retained (M)645.29645.29645.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-166.44-104.02-62.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)478.85541.27582.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)463.43463.43463.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.031.171.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.031.171.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.441.571.66
WACC / Discount Rate9.71%9.71%9.71%
Growth Rate-9.54%-8.54%-7.54%
Fair Value$6.75$7.88$8.91
Upside / Downside-91.83%-90.47%-89.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)832.20761.16696.18636.75582.39532.68548.66
Payout Ratio22.46%35.97%49.48%62.98%76.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)186.90273.77344.44401.05445.48479.41507.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.71%9.71%9.71%
Growth Rate-9.54%-8.54%-7.54%
Year 1 PV (M)246.81249.54252.27
Year 2 PV (M)279.95286.17292.46
Year 3 PV (M)293.86303.72313.79
Year 4 PV (M)294.28307.51321.18
Year 5 PV (M)285.51301.64318.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,504.884,759.435,025.36
Equity Value (M)5,905.286,208.016,523.56
Shares Outstanding (M)463.43463.43463.43
Fair Value$12.74$13.40$14.08
Upside / Downside-84.58%-83.78%-82.96%

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