Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hengdian Entertainment Co.,LTD (603103.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: EntertainmentSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.69 - $0.94$0.82
Multi-Stage$2.94 - $3.26$3.09
Blended Fair Value$1.96
Current Price$18.36
Upside-89.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.25%7.46%0.120.000.000.010.190.190.170.140.150.04
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%-95.80%-2.61%15.88%18.65%-4.24%243.72%-26.30%
Dividend Yield--0.89%0.00%0.00%0.07%1.18%1.43%0.92%0.62%0.93%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)92.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)76.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)16.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.4511.536.92
Cash Retained (M)16.1316.1316.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.45-11.53-6.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2.314.609.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)636.61636.61636.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.13
WACC / Discount Rate5.51%5.51%5.51%
Growth Rate-9.64%-8.64%-7.64%
Fair Value$0.69$0.82$0.94
Upside / Downside-96.24%-95.54%-94.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)92.2484.2676.9870.3364.2558.6960.45
Payout Ratio82.51%84.01%85.51%87.00%88.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)76.1070.7965.8261.1956.8652.8255.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.51%5.51%5.51%
Growth Rate-9.64%-8.64%-7.64%
Year 1 PV (M)66.3667.0967.83
Year 2 PV (M)57.8459.1360.43
Year 3 PV (M)50.4052.0953.82
Year 4 PV (M)43.9145.8847.93
Year 5 PV (M)38.2440.4042.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,613.901,705.211,800.60
Equity Value (M)1,870.641,969.812,073.27
Shares Outstanding (M)636.61636.61636.61
Fair Value$2.94$3.09$3.26
Upside / Downside-84.00%-83.15%-82.26%

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