Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Wuxi Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (603090.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.52 - $41.84$23.85
Multi-Stage$10.86 - $11.85$11.34
Blended Fair Value$17.60
Current Price$53.03
Upside-66.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.77%16.00%0.330.330.330.020.130.120.100.200.070.30
YoY Growth---1.10%0.84%1,537.57%-84.00%2.44%23.60%-50.00%166.67%-75.00%300.00%
Dividend Yield--1.47%1.44%1.37%0.08%1.01%0.71%0.55%1.08%0.19%2.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)65.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)34.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.198.254.95
Cash Retained (M)34.5234.5234.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.19-8.25-4.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)21.3226.2729.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)101.02101.02101.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.260.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.260.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.60
WACC / Discount Rate9.05%9.05%9.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15.52$23.85$41.84
Upside / Downside-70.74%-55.03%-21.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)65.9770.2674.8379.6984.8790.3893.10
Payout Ratio47.68%56.14%64.61%73.07%81.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.4539.4448.3458.2369.2081.3586.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.05%9.05%9.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)35.8336.1736.51
Year 2 PV (M)39.8940.6541.42
Year 3 PV (M)43.6544.9046.18
Year 4 PV (M)47.1248.9350.79
Year 5 PV (M)50.3152.7455.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)880.10922.61966.75
Equity Value (M)1,096.901,146.001,196.91
Shares Outstanding (M)101.02101.02101.02
Fair Value$10.86$11.34$11.85
Upside / Downside-79.52%-78.61%-77.66%

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