Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhejiang Dafeng Industry Co., Ltd (603081.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.43 - $5.97$4.52
Multi-Stage$5.08 - $5.55$5.31
Blended Fair Value$4.92
Current Price$13.22
Upside-62.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.22%3.36%0.270.400.430.250.130.150.150.140.190.05
YoY Growth---32.25%-5.17%70.20%95.87%-16.92%2.88%7.32%-28.49%276.35%-73.68%
Dividend Yield--2.44%3.69%2.60%2.21%1.06%1.39%0.94%0.49%1.30%0.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)104.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)96.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.8213.017.81
Cash Retained (M)7.697.697.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.82-13.01-7.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)-13.13-5.32-0.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)396.04396.04396.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.24
WACC / Discount Rate7.57%7.57%7.57%
Growth Rate1.36%2.36%3.36%
Fair Value$3.43$4.52$5.97
Upside / Downside-74.03%-65.81%-54.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)104.08106.54109.05111.63114.26116.96120.47
Payout Ratio92.61%92.09%91.57%91.05%90.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)96.3998.1199.86101.63103.44105.27111.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.57%7.57%7.57%
Growth Rate1.36%2.36%3.36%
Year 1 PV (M)90.3291.2192.10
Year 2 PV (M)84.6286.3087.99
Year 3 PV (M)79.2881.6584.07
Year 4 PV (M)74.2877.2580.32
Year 5 PV (M)69.5973.0976.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,612.411,693.531,777.89
Equity Value (M)2,010.502,103.042,199.10
Shares Outstanding (M)396.04396.04396.04
Fair Value$5.08$5.31$5.55
Upside / Downside-61.60%-59.83%-58.00%

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