Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Xinjiang Torch Gas Co., Ltd (603080.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$132.43 - $257.45$241.27
Multi-Stage$40.18 - $43.98$42.05
Blended Fair Value$141.66
Current Price$23.95
Upside491.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS47.37%6.85%0.480.220.440.340.130.070.190.000.000.04
YoY Growth--113.37%-48.52%26.97%157.07%93.86%-63.66%0.00%-100.00%-91.54%-83.26%
Dividend Yield--3.02%1.57%3.12%2.50%0.82%0.56%0.83%0.00%0.02%0.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)183.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)79.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)103.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.7322.9613.77
Cash Retained (M)103.67103.67103.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.73-22.96-13.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)66.9480.7289.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)141.87141.87141.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.470.570.63
LTM Dividend per Share0.560.560.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.470.570.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.041.131.20
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$132.43$241.27$257.45
Upside / Downside452.93%907.38%974.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)183.66195.60208.31221.85236.27251.63259.18
Payout Ratio43.55%52.84%62.13%71.42%80.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)79.99103.36129.43158.45190.70226.47239.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)96.3097.2198.12
Year 2 PV (M)112.35114.49116.65
Year 3 PV (M)128.14131.82135.57
Year 4 PV (M)143.69149.21154.89
Year 5 PV (M)158.98166.66174.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,061.525,305.995,559.82
Equity Value (M)5,700.975,965.386,239.68
Shares Outstanding (M)141.87141.87141.87
Fair Value$40.18$42.05$43.98
Upside / Downside67.78%75.56%83.63%

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