Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co., Ltd. (603063.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.42 - $67.21$39.88
Multi-Stage$18.10 - $19.79$18.93
Blended Fair Value$29.40
Current Price$35.75
Upside-17.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS72.30%-1.09%0.250.120.120.130.020.020.130.040.020.00
YoY Growth--108.98%-0.50%-5.78%666.11%1.19%-87.42%194.00%102.02%12,152.48%-99.94%
Dividend Yield--0.77%0.51%0.44%0.36%0.11%0.20%1.10%0.27%0.12%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)521.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)76.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)444.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)104.3265.2039.12
Cash Retained (M)444.78444.78444.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-104.32-65.20-39.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)340.46379.58405.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)447.28447.28447.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.760.850.91
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.760.850.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.931.021.08
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$26.42$39.88$67.21
Upside / Downside-26.10%11.54%88.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)521.61555.51591.62630.07671.03714.64736.08
Payout Ratio14.73%29.78%44.84%59.89%74.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)76.82165.44265.26377.36502.91643.18680.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)150.05151.47152.89
Year 2 PV (M)218.19222.35226.54
Year 3 PV (M)281.51289.59297.82
Year 4 PV (M)340.26353.34366.80
Year 5 PV (M)394.67413.73433.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,711.317,035.477,372.04
Equity Value (M)8,095.988,465.958,849.62
Shares Outstanding (M)447.28447.28447.28
Fair Value$18.10$18.93$19.79
Upside / Downside-49.37%-47.06%-44.66%

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