Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jiangsu Rutong Petro-Machinery Co., Ltd (603036.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$91.99 - $108.40$101.57
Multi-Stage$62.19 - $68.31$65.19
Blended Fair Value$83.38
Current Price$21.11
Upside294.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.42%0.00%0.200.190.120.150.120.060.050.100.050.07
YoY Growth--5.26%57.85%-20.01%25.39%109.62%7.41%-46.00%90.48%-22.22%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.36%1.55%0.94%1.67%1.44%0.66%0.37%0.62%0.13%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)115.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)73.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.0314.398.64
Cash Retained (M)73.9573.9573.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.03-14.39-8.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)50.9259.5665.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)209.20209.20209.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.280.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.280.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.480.51
WACC / Discount Rate1.62%1.62%1.62%
Growth Rate4.44%5.44%6.44%
Fair Value$91.99$101.57$108.40
Upside / Downside335.74%381.16%413.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)115.16121.42128.03135.00142.34150.09154.59
Payout Ratio35.78%46.62%57.47%68.31%79.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41.2056.6173.5792.22112.67135.08142.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.62%1.62%1.62%
Growth Rate4.44%5.44%6.44%
Year 1 PV (M)55.1855.7156.23
Year 2 PV (M)69.9071.2472.60
Year 3 PV (M)85.3987.8790.39
Year 4 PV (M)101.69105.64109.71
Year 5 PV (M)118.83124.63130.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,579.5313,193.4013,831.01
Equity Value (M)13,010.5213,638.4914,290.60
Shares Outstanding (M)209.20209.20209.20
Fair Value$62.19$65.19$68.31
Upside / Downside194.61%208.83%223.60%

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