Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shandong Swan CottonIndustrial Machinery Stock Co.,Ltd. (603029.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.73 - $36.51$22.05
Multi-Stage$10.34 - $11.29$10.80
Blended Fair Value$16.43
Current Price$17.91
Upside-8.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.06%13.08%0.180.180.080.070.080.080.050.070.000.00
YoY Growth---0.19%108.88%26.84%-12.40%-1.00%41.19%-22.17%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--1.06%0.98%0.38%0.47%0.78%0.69%0.42%0.42%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)81.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)58.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.2410.156.09
Cash Retained (M)58.4458.4458.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.24-10.15-6.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)42.2048.2952.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)122.06122.06122.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.400.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.400.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.62
WACC / Discount Rate9.31%9.31%9.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.73$22.05$36.51
Upside / Downside-17.75%23.11%103.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)81.2086.4892.1098.09104.46111.25114.59
Payout Ratio28.04%40.43%52.82%65.21%77.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.7634.9648.6563.9781.07100.13106.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.31%9.31%9.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)31.6831.9832.28
Year 2 PV (M)39.9540.7141.48
Year 3 PV (M)47.6148.9750.36
Year 4 PV (M)54.6856.7858.94
Year 5 PV (M)61.2064.1567.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,026.441,076.021,127.49
Equity Value (M)1,261.561,318.621,377.79
Shares Outstanding (M)122.06122.06122.06
Fair Value$10.34$10.80$11.29
Upside / Downside-42.29%-39.68%-36.98%

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