Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ARTS Group Co., Ltd (603017.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.11 - $1.65$1.37
Multi-Stage$9.04 - $10.05$9.54
Blended Fair Value$5.45
Current Price$10.30
Upside-47.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-15.37%-3.67%0.130.340.290.670.440.300.310.140.180.14
YoY Growth---61.56%18.10%-56.66%50.25%46.79%-1.24%123.80%-22.73%22.42%-24.19%
Dividend Yield--1.58%4.05%2.67%6.44%4.40%2.81%1.95%1.03%0.88%0.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)40.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.145.093.05
Cash Retained (M)8.518.518.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.14-5.09-3.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.373.425.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)271.61271.61271.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate0.55%0.55%0.55%
Growth Rate-9.23%-8.23%-7.23%
Fair Value$1.11$1.37$1.65
Upside / Downside-89.19%-86.69%-83.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)40.7237.3734.2931.4728.8826.5027.30
Payout Ratio79.10%81.28%83.46%85.64%87.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.2130.3728.6226.9525.3623.8525.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.55%0.55%0.55%
Growth Rate-9.23%-8.23%-7.23%
Year 1 PV (M)29.8830.2130.53
Year 2 PV (M)27.6928.3128.93
Year 3 PV (M)25.6526.5127.39
Year 4 PV (M)23.7524.8125.91
Year 5 PV (M)21.9723.2124.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,325.822,456.792,593.60
Equity Value (M)2,454.762,589.832,730.86
Shares Outstanding (M)271.61271.61271.61
Fair Value$9.04$9.54$10.05
Upside / Downside-12.25%-7.43%-2.39%

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