Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (601888.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.79 - $77.65$49.33
Multi-Stage$25.34 - $27.61$26.45
Blended Fair Value$37.89
Current Price$71.57
Upside-47.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.64%24.51%1.690.801.420.940.680.520.490.470.240.22
YoY Growth--111.32%-43.49%50.00%38.89%30.91%5.77%4.00%100.00%8.69%15.00%
Dividend Yield--2.81%0.91%0.77%0.57%0.22%0.77%0.70%0.89%0.83%0.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,399.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,107.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,292.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)679.96424.97254.98
Cash Retained (M)1,292.381,292.381,292.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-679.96-424.97-254.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)612.42867.401,037.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,068.862,068.862,068.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.420.50
LTM Dividend per Share1.021.021.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.420.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.311.441.52
WACC / Discount Rate9.60%9.60%9.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$33.79$49.33$77.65
Upside / Downside-52.78%-31.08%8.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,399.783,620.763,856.114,106.764,373.704,657.994,797.73
Payout Ratio61.99%67.59%73.19%78.79%84.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,107.402,447.242,822.363,235.903,691.284,192.194,437.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.60%9.60%9.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,211.832,232.792,253.76
Year 2 PV (M)2,305.482,349.402,393.72
Year 3 PV (M)2,389.022,457.602,527.48
Year 4 PV (M)2,463.072,557.792,655.22
Year 5 PV (M)2,528.222,650.332,777.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,524.4742,481.8144,514.07
Equity Value (M)52,422.0854,729.7357,121.37
Shares Outstanding (M)2,068.862,068.862,068.86
Fair Value$25.34$26.45$27.61
Upside / Downside-64.60%-63.04%-61.42%

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