Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Great Wall Motor Company Limited (601633.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.61 - $28.26$21.68
Multi-Stage$13.43 - $14.63$14.02
Blended Fair Value$17.85
Current Price$24.60
Upside-27.45%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.40%2.93%0.390.420.140.690.300.330.240.390.200.38
YoY Growth---5.45%188.66%-79.15%131.57%-10.31%38.58%-38.96%92.52%-45.67%27.66%
Dividend Yield--1.51%1.75%0.52%2.52%0.99%3.74%2.98%3.45%1.62%4.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,899.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,852.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,046.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,179.811,362.38817.43
Cash Retained (M)8,046.888,046.888,046.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,179.81-1,362.38-817.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,867.076,684.497,229.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,509.568,509.568,509.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.690.790.85
LTM Dividend per Share0.340.340.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.690.790.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.021.121.18
WACC / Discount Rate12.01%12.01%12.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$16.61$21.68$28.26
Upside / Downside-32.46%-11.89%14.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,899.0511,607.4912,361.9813,165.5114,021.2614,932.6515,380.63
Payout Ratio26.17%38.94%51.70%64.47%77.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,852.184,519.406,391.328,487.4910,829.1613,439.3814,227.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.01%12.01%12.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,997.074,034.954,072.84
Year 2 PV (M)4,999.325,094.545,190.67
Year 3 PV (M)5,871.656,040.206,211.95
Year 4 PV (M)6,625.766,880.577,142.66
Year 5 PV (M)7,272.457,623.717,988.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)85,480.9889,609.7493,896.52
Equity Value (M)114,247.23119,283.72124,503.06
Shares Outstanding (M)8,509.568,509.568,509.56
Fair Value$13.43$14.02$14.63
Upside / Downside-45.42%-43.02%-40.52%

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