Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ningxia Jiaze Renewables Corporation Limited (601619.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.59 - $52.89$49.56
Multi-Stage$7.91 - $8.65$8.27
Blended Fair Value$28.92
Current Price$5.48
Upside427.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.50%5.13%0.170.150.150.130.140.120.140.110.100.11
YoY Growth--13.55%-2.11%18.57%-6.29%10.92%-13.26%24.95%12.43%-10.70%10.59%
Dividend Yield--4.80%4.41%3.55%3.10%3.84%4.06%2.46%1.45%5.64%6.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)674.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)378.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)295.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)134.8284.2650.56
Cash Retained (M)295.44295.44295.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-134.82-84.26-50.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)160.62211.18244.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,534.842,534.842,534.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22.59$49.56$52.89
Upside / Downside312.27%804.46%865.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)674.11717.93764.59814.29867.22923.59951.30
Payout Ratio56.17%62.94%69.70%76.47%83.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)378.67451.85532.95622.68721.83831.23879.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)420.32424.30428.28
Year 2 PV (M)461.15469.94478.80
Year 3 PV (M)501.19515.58530.24
Year 4 PV (M)540.45561.23582.61
Year 5 PV (M)578.92606.88635.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,542.7818,390.1019,269.85
Equity Value (M)20,044.8120,968.0421,925.71
Shares Outstanding (M)2,534.842,534.842,534.84
Fair Value$7.91$8.27$8.65
Upside / Downside44.30%50.95%57.84%

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