Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding Co., Ltd (601607.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DistributionSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$129.26 - $302.94$283.90
Multi-Stage$44.31 - $48.52$46.38
Blended Fair Value$165.14
Current Price$17.95
Upside820.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.88%11.16%0.971.070.830.720.650.700.640.470.390.37
YoY Growth---9.48%28.68%15.62%10.65%-6.41%9.60%34.71%21.24%4.74%10.12%
Dividend Yield--5.24%6.10%4.10%2.95%3.33%3.57%2.99%1.92%1.67%2.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,645.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,342.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,303.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,129.08705.68423.41
Cash Retained (M)4,303.414,303.414,303.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,129.08-705.68-423.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,174.323,597.733,880.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,706.083,706.083,706.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.860.971.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.860.971.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.221.331.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$129.26$283.90$302.94
Upside / Downside620.13%1,481.63%1,587.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,645.426,012.376,403.176,819.387,262.647,734.717,966.75
Payout Ratio23.77%37.02%50.26%63.51%76.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,342.012,225.623,218.434,330.905,574.396,961.247,369.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,070.262,089.892,109.51
Year 2 PV (M)2,784.802,837.842,891.39
Year 3 PV (M)3,485.813,585.873,687.83
Year 4 PV (M)4,173.484,333.984,499.06
Year 5 PV (M)4,848.005,082.165,325.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)146,859.29153,952.65161,317.49
Equity Value (M)164,221.64171,882.39179,830.57
Shares Outstanding (M)3,706.083,706.083,706.08
Fair Value$44.31$46.38$48.52
Upside / Downside146.86%158.38%170.32%

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