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Definitive Analysis

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Guolian Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd. (601456.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.18 - $78.29$73.37
Multi-Stage$10.62 - $11.60$11.10
Blended Fair Value$42.23
Current Price$11.17
Upside278.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.42%20.95%0.090.170.060.060.000.020.000.060.170.02
YoY Growth---47.33%169.59%-0.77%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%-65.00%624.72%75.00%
Dividend Yield--0.88%1.50%0.60%0.48%0.00%0.35%0.00%0.97%2.77%0.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,764.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,212.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)552.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)352.86220.54132.32
Cash Retained (M)552.07552.07552.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-352.86-220.54-132.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)199.21331.53419.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,481.864,481.864,481.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.070.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.070.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$24.18$73.37$78.29
Upside / Downside116.50%556.83%600.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,764.301,878.982,001.122,131.192,269.722,417.252,489.77
Payout Ratio68.71%72.97%77.23%81.48%85.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,212.241,371.041,545.371,736.571,946.102,175.522,303.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,270.811,282.861,294.91
Year 2 PV (M)1,327.691,352.971,378.50
Year 3 PV (M)1,382.891,422.581,463.03
Year 4 PV (M)1,436.451,491.691,548.51
Year 5 PV (M)1,488.401,560.291,634.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,673.6942,638.2544,677.99
Equity Value (M)47,579.9349,748.6551,997.88
Shares Outstanding (M)4,481.864,481.864,481.86
Fair Value$10.62$11.10$11.60
Upside / Downside-4.96%-0.63%3.87%

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