Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Qingdao Port International Co., Ltd. (601298.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$70.64 - $167.68$157.14
Multi-Stage$24.85 - $27.19$26.00
Blended Fair Value$91.57
Current Price$8.38
Upside992.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.43%12.20%0.510.290.260.270.200.410.030.150.110.07
YoY Growth--75.73%13.07%-4.22%33.65%-51.18%1,161.08%-78.91%38.21%54.63%-55.21%
Dividend Yield--5.18%3.95%4.03%4.81%2.86%7.05%0.31%2.32%1.68%1.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,483.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,690.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,793.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,096.78685.49411.29
Cash Retained (M)2,793.832,793.832,793.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,096.78-685.49-411.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,697.052,108.352,382.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,504.056,504.056,504.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.320.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.320.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.740.78
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$70.64$157.14$167.68
Upside / Downside743.00%1,775.21%1,900.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,483.915,840.366,219.996,624.297,054.877,513.437,738.83
Payout Ratio49.05%57.24%65.43%73.62%81.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,690.083,343.214,069.894,876.915,771.646,762.097,158.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,109.473,138.953,168.42
Year 2 PV (M)3,520.703,587.763,655.45
Year 3 PV (M)3,923.874,036.514,151.28
Year 4 PV (M)4,319.094,485.194,656.04
Year 5 PV (M)4,706.494,933.825,169.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)142,054.80148,916.10156,040.00
Equity Value (M)161,634.43169,098.33176,841.04
Shares Outstanding (M)6,504.056,504.056,504.05
Fair Value$24.85$26.00$27.19
Upside / Downside196.56%210.25%224.46%

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