Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. (601128.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$63.68 - $230.25$201.85
Multi-Stage$28.84 - $31.57$30.18
Blended Fair Value$116.01
Current Price$6.84
Upside1,596.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.01%14.87%0.210.210.260.250.240.160.140.120.000.05
YoY Growth---1.57%-16.57%2.24%4.67%45.27%20.59%11.27%0.00%-100.00%-4.00%
Dividend Yield--3.31%3.59%4.15%3.90%3.80%2.91%2.12%2.11%0.00%0.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,194.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)820.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,374.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)838.97524.36314.62
Cash Retained (M)3,374.513,374.513,374.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-838.97-524.36-314.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,535.542,850.153,059.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,623.283,623.283,623.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.700.790.84
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.700.790.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.931.011.07
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$63.68$201.85$230.25
Upside / Downside830.96%2,850.96%3,266.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,194.874,467.544,757.935,067.195,396.565,747.345,919.76
Payout Ratio19.56%33.64%47.73%61.82%75.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)820.361,503.102,271.143,132.674,096.605,172.605,475.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,391.131,404.321,417.50
Year 2 PV (M)1,945.371,982.422,019.82
Year 3 PV (M)2,483.432,554.722,627.36
Year 4 PV (M)3,005.663,121.253,240.14
Year 5 PV (M)3,512.403,682.053,858.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)92,161.6196,613.05101,234.86
Equity Value (M)104,499.59109,357.80114,397.87
Shares Outstanding (M)3,623.283,623.283,623.28
Fair Value$28.84$30.18$31.57
Upside / Downside321.65%341.26%361.59%

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