Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China National Chemical Engineering Co., Ltd (601117.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.10 - $80.28$41.67
Multi-Stage$16.79 - $18.37$17.56
Blended Fair Value$29.62
Current Price$7.44
Upside298.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.77%8.38%0.260.300.220.270.150.170.140.140.130.14
YoY Growth---14.79%34.21%-17.13%77.90%-9.71%24.39%-6.45%14.56%-8.12%19.91%
Dividend Yield--3.57%4.43%2.42%2.81%2.18%2.82%2.05%1.97%1.44%2.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,082.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)206.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,876.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,216.52760.32456.19
Cash Retained (M)5,876.535,876.535,876.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,216.52-760.32-456.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,660.015,116.215,420.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,066.886,066.886,066.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.770.840.89
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.770.840.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.800.880.93
WACC / Discount Rate8.74%8.74%8.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$26.10$41.67$80.28
Upside / Downside250.83%460.14%979.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,082.596,477.966,899.027,347.467,825.048,333.678,583.68
Payout Ratio3.39%20.71%38.03%55.36%72.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)206.061,341.592,623.884,067.195,687.057,500.317,939.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.74%8.74%8.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,222.161,233.741,245.33
Year 2 PV (M)2,177.492,218.962,260.83
Year 3 PV (M)3,074.773,163.043,252.98
Year 4 PV (M)3,916.624,067.244,222.16
Year 5 PV (M)4,705.544,932.825,168.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)86,754.4590,944.7395,295.37
Equity Value (M)101,851.02106,560.52111,445.46
Shares Outstanding (M)6,066.886,066.886,066.88
Fair Value$16.79$17.56$18.37
Upside / Downside125.65%136.08%146.90%

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