Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co., Ltd. (601101.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$55.03 - $64.84$60.76
Multi-Stage$11.16 - $12.22$11.68
Blended Fair Value$36.22
Current Price$7.28
Upside397.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.84%8.48%0.510.560.740.360.380.470.350.230.230.19
YoY Growth---9.17%-23.77%104.37%-3.85%-19.50%35.09%53.52%-3.51%20.93%-14.82%
Dividend Yield--7.09%7.67%11.68%4.06%11.35%13.98%5.72%3.97%4.02%3.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)471.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)124.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)346.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)94.2758.9235.35
Cash Retained (M)346.75346.75346.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-94.27-58.92-35.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)252.48287.83311.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,445.771,445.771,445.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.290.30
WACC / Discount Rate6.00%6.00%6.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$55.03$60.76$64.84
Upside / Downside655.95%734.66%790.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)471.36501.99534.62569.38606.38645.80665.17
Payout Ratio26.44%39.15%51.86%64.57%77.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)124.61196.52277.26367.67468.66581.22615.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.00%6.00%6.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)183.66185.41187.15
Year 2 PV (M)242.17246.78251.43
Year 3 PV (M)300.11308.73317.51
Year 4 PV (M)357.51371.26385.40
Year 5 PV (M)414.37434.38455.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,636.3515,343.2916,077.29
Equity Value (M)16,134.1716,889.8417,673.94
Shares Outstanding (M)1,445.771,445.771,445.77
Fair Value$11.16$11.68$12.22
Upside / Downside53.29%60.47%67.92%

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