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Definitive Analysis

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Orient Securities Company Limited (600958.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.76 - $41.90$23.04
Multi-Stage$14.94 - $16.36$15.64
Blended Fair Value$19.34
Current Price$11.44
Upside69.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.12%17.23%0.530.460.620.560.520.500.570.510.560.29
YoY Growth--14.52%-25.35%10.66%8.35%3.14%-11.99%12.69%-9.68%94.52%166.17%
Dividend Yield--5.62%5.57%6.34%5.21%5.95%5.61%4.78%4.15%3.89%1.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,158.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,262.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,895.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,031.70644.81386.89
Cash Retained (M)1,895.651,895.651,895.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,031.70-644.81-386.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)863.951,250.841,508.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,455.138,455.138,455.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.150.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.390.390.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.150.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate3.45%4.45%5.45%
Fair Value$14.76$23.04$41.90
Upside / Downside29.05%101.39%266.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,158.515,388.225,628.165,878.786,140.576,414.016,606.43
Payout Ratio63.25%68.60%73.95%79.30%84.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,262.863,696.404,162.094,661.925,198.015,772.616,110.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate3.45%4.45%5.45%
Year 1 PV (M)3,425.563,458.683,491.79
Year 2 PV (M)3,574.523,643.953,714.06
Year 3 PV (M)3,710.433,819.073,929.81
Year 4 PV (M)3,833.983,984.384,139.16
Year 5 PV (M)3,945.824,140.254,342.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)107,843.04113,156.95118,678.31
Equity Value (M)126,333.33132,203.27138,295.39
Shares Outstanding (M)8,455.138,455.138,455.13
Fair Value$14.94$15.64$16.36
Upside / Downside30.61%36.68%42.98%

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