Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Wuxi Rural Commercial Bank Co.,Ltd (600908.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.93 - $209.86$66.50
Multi-Stage$20.76 - $22.72$21.73
Blended Fair Value$44.11
Current Price$5.88
Upside650.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.01%13.78%0.360.340.350.400.340.240.210.170.040.14
YoY Growth--5.95%-3.27%-12.84%18.91%38.37%13.25%27.01%291.44%-69.71%45.01%
Dividend Yield--6.25%6.55%6.48%6.87%5.25%4.88%3.20%2.35%0.31%2.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,318.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)191.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,127.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)463.77289.86173.91
Cash Retained (M)2,127.762,127.762,127.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-463.77-289.86-173.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,663.991,837.901,953.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,197.492,197.492,197.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.760.840.89
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.760.840.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.98
WACC / Discount Rate7.98%7.98%7.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$35.93$66.50$209.86
Upside / Downside511.05%1,030.92%3,469.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,318.842,469.572,630.092,801.052,983.113,177.023,272.33
Payout Ratio8.24%24.59%40.94%57.30%73.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)191.09607.331,076.871,604.892,197.012,859.313,026.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.98%7.98%7.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)557.17562.45567.73
Year 2 PV (M)906.35923.61941.04
Year 3 PV (M)1,239.201,274.771,311.02
Year 4 PV (M)1,556.291,616.141,677.70
Year 5 PV (M)1,858.171,947.922,041.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)39,509.5341,417.8643,399.22
Equity Value (M)45,626.7047,742.7549,937.81
Shares Outstanding (M)2,197.492,197.492,197.49
Fair Value$20.76$21.73$22.72
Upside / Downside253.11%269.49%286.48%

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