Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xinjiang Joinworld Co.,Ltd. (600888.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.75 - $16.78$11.97
Multi-Stage$13.91 - $15.27$14.58
Blended Fair Value$13.27
Current Price$7.97
Upside66.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.60%0.24%0.150.380.270.200.180.220.160.160.140.14
YoY Growth---61.57%42.60%34.61%7.76%-15.28%33.39%3.94%11.33%2.35%-3.71%
Dividend Yield--2.02%4.70%3.06%2.74%2.95%5.61%3.09%2.99%2.10%2.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)861.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)406.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)454.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)172.23107.6464.58
Cash Retained (M)454.80454.80454.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-172.23-107.64-64.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)282.57347.16390.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,535.691,535.691,535.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.230.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.230.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.52
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate1.23%2.23%3.23%
Fair Value$8.75$11.97$16.78
Upside / Downside9.75%50.15%110.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)861.13880.31899.92919.96940.45961.39990.24
Payout Ratio47.19%55.75%64.31%72.87%81.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)406.33490.76578.75670.41765.87865.26915.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate1.23%2.23%3.23%
Year 1 PV (M)456.65461.16465.67
Year 2 PV (M)501.09511.04521.09
Year 3 PV (M)540.11556.28572.76
Year 4 PV (M)574.13597.16620.87
Year 5 PV (M)603.55633.95665.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,690.0219,631.6220,610.78
Equity Value (M)21,365.5622,391.2123,456.75
Shares Outstanding (M)1,535.691,535.691,535.69
Fair Value$13.91$14.58$15.27
Upside / Downside74.56%82.94%91.65%

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