Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai No.1 Pharmacy Co., Ltd. (600833.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - PharmaceuticalsSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.03 - $13.57$7.74
Multi-Stage$3.35 - $3.67$3.51
Blended Fair Value$5.62
Current Price$12.70
Upside-55.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.19%10.18%0.130.190.070.100.070.060.060.070.060.05
YoY Growth---32.39%178.57%-30.42%34.14%15.38%8.35%-14.29%16.66%20.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.06%1.75%0.59%0.86%0.74%0.72%0.51%0.54%0.29%0.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)47.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)44.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.465.913.55
Cash Retained (M)44.8944.8944.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.46-5.91-3.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)35.4438.9841.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)223.31223.31223.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.170.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.170.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate9.05%9.05%9.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5.03$7.74$13.57
Upside / Downside-60.37%-39.09%6.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)47.3050.3753.6457.1360.8464.8066.74
Payout Ratio5.08%22.06%39.05%56.03%73.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.4011.1120.9532.0144.4358.3261.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.05%9.05%9.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10.0910.1910.29
Year 2 PV (M)17.2817.6117.95
Year 3 PV (M)23.9924.6825.39
Year 4 PV (M)30.2531.4132.61
Year 5 PV (M)36.0737.8139.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)631.03661.51693.15
Equity Value (M)748.72783.22819.00
Shares Outstanding (M)223.31223.31223.31
Fair Value$3.35$3.51$3.67
Upside / Downside-73.60%-72.38%-71.12%

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