Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Sunny Loan Top Co.,Ltd. (600830.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.13 - $1.66$1.39
Multi-Stage$2.20 - $2.41$2.30
Blended Fair Value$1.84
Current Price$9.72
Upside-81.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.74%-0.23%0.120.060.010.070.020.090.050.060.110.10
YoY Growth--106.34%439.17%-84.26%249.47%-77.36%81.93%-19.67%-44.31%12.53%-23.01%
Dividend Yield--1.32%0.87%0.18%1.09%0.43%1.62%0.71%0.84%0.97%0.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)67.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)55.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.538.465.07
Cash Retained (M)11.7411.7411.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.53-8.46-5.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.793.286.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)455.77455.77455.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate8.01%8.01%8.01%
Growth Rate-2.23%-1.23%-0.23%
Fair Value$1.13$1.39$1.66
Upside / Downside-88.34%-85.72%-82.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)67.6666.8366.0065.1964.3963.5965.50
Payout Ratio82.65%84.12%85.59%87.06%88.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)55.9256.2156.4956.7557.0057.2360.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.01%8.01%8.01%
Growth Rate-2.23%-1.23%-0.23%
Year 1 PV (M)51.5252.0552.57
Year 2 PV (M)47.4548.4249.41
Year 3 PV (M)43.6845.0446.42
Year 4 PV (M)40.2141.8843.60
Year 5 PV (M)37.0038.9340.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)781.62822.42864.91
Equity Value (M)1,001.481,048.741,097.86
Shares Outstanding (M)455.77455.77455.77
Fair Value$2.20$2.30$2.41
Upside / Downside-77.39%-76.33%-75.22%

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