Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

HPGC Renmintongtai Pharmaceutical Corporation (600829.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.57 - $4.36$3.35
Multi-Stage$3.07 - $3.36$3.21
Blended Fair Value$3.28
Current Price$7.89
Upside-58.44%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS62.49%4.06%0.280.040.050.060.010.020.520.500.010.02
YoY Growth--551.53%-19.24%-14.48%736.81%-69.92%-95.26%3.13%5,514.48%-62.89%-87.09%
Dividend Yield--3.55%0.63%0.77%0.82%0.12%0.35%6.61%4.66%0.06%0.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)119.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)99.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.8314.898.94
Cash Retained (M)99.4899.4899.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.83-14.89-8.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)75.6584.5990.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)579.70579.70579.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate2.06%3.06%4.06%
Fair Value$2.57$3.35$4.36
Upside / Downside-67.48%-57.59%-44.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)119.14122.79126.54130.41134.40138.51142.67
Payout Ratio16.50%31.20%45.90%60.60%75.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.6638.3158.0979.03101.20124.66131.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate2.06%3.06%4.06%
Year 1 PV (M)34.9435.2835.62
Year 2 PV (M)48.3049.2550.21
Year 3 PV (M)59.9361.7163.52
Year 4 PV (M)69.9872.7675.63
Year 5 PV (M)78.6182.5386.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,486.651,560.921,638.14
Equity Value (M)1,778.401,862.461,949.74
Shares Outstanding (M)579.70579.70579.70
Fair Value$3.07$3.21$3.36
Upside / Downside-61.12%-59.28%-57.37%

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