Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Qianjiang Biochemical Co., Ltd (600796.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.50 - $44.56$32.41
Multi-Stage$5.48 - $5.99$5.73
Blended Fair Value$19.07
Current Price$5.93
Upside221.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS97.79%15.38%0.120.220.240.100.090.000.020.030.010.01
YoY Growth---43.19%-7.73%146.41%12.57%1,981.72%-76.73%-30.68%163.80%-34.04%-50.77%
Dividend Yield--2.19%4.32%4.42%1.63%1.79%0.07%0.28%0.38%0.09%0.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)182.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)56.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)125.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.5122.8213.69
Cash Retained (M)125.65125.65125.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.51-22.82-13.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)89.14102.83111.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)814.60814.60814.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate7.14%7.14%7.14%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.50$32.41$44.56
Upside / Downside93.97%446.60%651.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)182.54194.40207.04220.49234.83250.09257.59
Payout Ratio31.17%42.93%54.70%66.47%78.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)56.8983.46113.25146.56183.71225.08238.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.14%7.14%7.14%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)77.1777.9078.63
Year 2 PV (M)96.8198.65100.51
Year 3 PV (M)115.83119.15122.54
Year 4 PV (M)134.24139.40144.71
Year 5 PV (M)152.06159.40167.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,884.224,071.834,266.62
Equity Value (M)4,460.314,666.334,880.04
Shares Outstanding (M)814.60814.60814.60
Fair Value$5.48$5.73$5.99
Upside / Downside-7.67%-3.40%1.02%

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