Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

CMST Development Co.,Ltd. (600787.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.81 - $2.67$2.22
Multi-Stage$1.54 - $1.67$1.60
Blended Fair Value$1.91
Current Price$5.92
Upside-67.69%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.73%7.60%0.160.150.220.140.100.170.160.120.130.10
YoY Growth--5.96%-30.37%61.23%39.80%-42.04%3.81%34.75%-10.58%31.77%30.88%
Dividend Yield--2.81%3.11%4.13%2.53%1.89%3.68%2.28%1.32%1.53%1.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)462.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)99.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)362.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)92.5457.8434.70
Cash Retained (M)362.81362.81362.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-92.54-57.84-34.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)270.27304.97328.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,158.562,158.562,158.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate15.48%15.48%15.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1.81$2.22$2.67
Upside / Downside-69.39%-62.44%-54.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)462.70492.77524.80558.92595.25633.94652.95
Payout Ratio21.59%35.27%48.95%62.64%76.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)99.89173.81256.91350.08454.28570.54603.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate15.48%15.48%15.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)149.09150.50151.91
Year 2 PV (M)189.03192.63196.27
Year 3 PV (M)220.96227.30233.76
Year 4 PV (M)245.94255.40265.13
Year 5 PV (M)264.96277.76291.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,246.712,355.222,467.89
Equity Value (M)3,316.693,458.823,606.02
Shares Outstanding (M)2,158.562,158.562,158.56
Fair Value$1.54$1.60$1.67
Upside / Downside-74.05%-72.93%-71.78%

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