Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited (600760.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.98 - $42.43$28.38
Multi-Stage$14.97 - $16.33$15.64
Blended Fair Value$22.01
Current Price$71.83
Upside-69.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS115.85%33.09%0.400.290.250.160.080.010.010.030.020.02
YoY Growth--39.94%13.97%52.25%116.01%793.23%19.53%-72.18%3.88%10.28%-2.32%
Dividend Yield--0.94%0.78%0.65%0.41%0.23%0.06%0.04%0.15%0.14%0.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,937.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,103.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,834.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)587.55367.22220.33
Cash Retained (M)1,834.661,834.661,834.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-587.55-367.22-220.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,247.111,467.441,614.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,761.992,761.992,761.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.530.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.530.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.850.930.98
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19.98$28.38$42.43
Upside / Downside-72.18%-60.49%-40.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,937.743,128.693,332.053,548.643,779.304,024.954,145.70
Payout Ratio37.55%48.04%58.53%69.02%79.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,103.081,502.991,950.222,449.253,004.913,622.463,834.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,353.611,366.441,379.27
Year 2 PV (M)1,581.841,611.971,642.39
Year 3 PV (M)1,789.171,840.531,892.87
Year 4 PV (M)1,976.932,052.952,131.15
Year 5 PV (M)2,146.362,250.032,357.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)32,494.3234,063.8135,693.37
Equity Value (M)41,342.2443,185.7545,096.72
Shares Outstanding (M)2,761.992,761.992,761.99
Fair Value$14.97$15.64$16.33
Upside / Downside-79.16%-78.23%-77.27%

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