Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co., Ltd. (600754.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.99 - $99.10$75.23
Multi-Stage$47.33 - $52.11$49.68
Blended Fair Value$62.45
Current Price$23.05
Upside170.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.56%15.00%1.130.480.280.330.860.950.940.960.950.62
YoY Growth--132.50%70.73%-13.08%-61.93%-9.31%0.45%-2.10%0.73%53.02%124.11%
Dividend Yield--4.22%1.73%0.45%0.66%1.55%3.93%3.08%2.82%3.31%1.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)551.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)262.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)288.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)110.2968.9341.36
Cash Retained (M)288.55288.55288.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-110.29-68.93-41.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)178.27219.63247.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,066.071,066.071,066.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.48
WACC / Discount Rate3.18%3.18%3.18%
Growth Rate1.56%2.56%3.56%
Fair Value$25.99$75.23$99.10
Upside / Downside12.75%226.38%329.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)551.43565.56580.05594.91610.16625.79644.57
Payout Ratio47.67%56.14%64.60%73.07%81.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)262.87317.49374.73434.69497.49563.21596.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate3.18%3.18%3.18%
Growth Rate1.56%2.56%3.56%
Year 1 PV (M)304.70307.70310.70
Year 2 PV (M)345.16351.99358.89
Year 3 PV (M)384.27395.73407.42
Year 4 PV (M)422.07438.94456.31
Year 5 PV (M)458.59481.62505.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)48,547.3550,984.9153,519.41
Equity Value (M)50,462.1552,960.9055,558.29
Shares Outstanding (M)1,066.071,066.071,066.07
Fair Value$47.33$49.68$52.11
Upside / Downside105.36%115.52%126.09%

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