Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Feilo Acoustics Co.,Ltd (600651.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.09 - $0.12$0.10
Multi-Stage$0.19 - $0.21$0.20
Blended Fair Value$0.15
Current Price$8.69
Upside-98.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-39.61%-6.72%0.010.020.030.050.080.130.120.130.120.06
YoY Growth---38.04%-43.61%-34.47%-40.96%-40.59%12.56%-11.75%15.04%110.00%158.76%
Dividend Yield--0.25%0.50%0.83%1.36%2.14%3.62%2.29%1.43%1.12%0.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)49.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.936.213.72
Cash Retained (M)33.1633.1633.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.93-6.21-3.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.2326.9629.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,442.202,442.202,442.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.020.020.02
WACC / Discount Rate8.39%8.39%8.39%
Growth Rate-8.72%-7.72%-6.72%
Fair Value$0.09$0.10$0.12
Upside / Downside-99.00%-98.83%-98.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)49.6445.8142.2739.0136.0033.2234.21
Payout Ratio33.20%44.56%55.92%67.28%78.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.4820.4123.6426.2428.3129.8931.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.39%8.39%8.39%
Growth Rate-8.72%-7.72%-6.72%
Year 1 PV (M)18.6318.8319.04
Year 2 PV (M)19.6920.1220.56
Year 3 PV (M)19.9520.6121.29
Year 4 PV (M)19.6320.5121.41
Year 5 PV (M)18.9219.9821.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)371.40392.20413.91
Equity Value (M)468.21492.24517.29
Shares Outstanding (M)2,442.202,442.202,442.20
Fair Value$0.19$0.20$0.21
Upside / Downside-97.79%-97.68%-97.56%

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