Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shanghai Dazhong Public Utilities(Group) Co.,Ltd. (600635.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.24 - $3.71$2.89
Multi-Stage$6.01 - $6.63$6.31
Blended Fair Value$4.60
Current Price$5.87
Upside-21.63%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.00%0.49%0.120.130.150.160.170.200.160.140.110.08
YoY Growth---8.57%-15.32%-4.06%-6.95%-14.58%23.81%18.61%26.62%38.59%-31.00%
Dividend Yield--3.17%4.47%5.11%4.57%4.30%5.01%2.14%2.79%1.70%1.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)582.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)154.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)427.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)116.5272.8243.69
Cash Retained (M)427.61427.61427.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-116.52-72.82-43.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)311.09354.79383.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,953.532,953.532,953.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate5.43%5.43%5.43%
Growth Rate-1.51%-0.51%0.49%
Fair Value$2.24$2.89$3.71
Upside / Downside-61.87%-50.78%-36.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)582.58579.59576.62573.67570.73567.80584.84
Payout Ratio26.60%39.28%51.96%64.64%77.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)154.97227.67299.62370.82441.29511.02540.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.43%5.43%5.43%
Growth Rate-1.51%-0.51%0.49%
Year 1 PV (M)213.77215.94218.11
Year 2 PV (M)264.16269.55274.99
Year 3 PV (M)306.98316.42326.06
Year 4 PV (M)343.01357.16371.74
Year 5 PV (M)372.97392.29412.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,246.5117,088.2317,964.48
Equity Value (M)17,747.4018,639.6019,567.80
Shares Outstanding (M)2,953.532,953.532,953.53
Fair Value$6.01$6.31$6.63
Upside / Downside2.37%7.51%12.87%

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