Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Arcplus Group PLC (600629.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.09 - $4.89$3.91
Multi-Stage$4.13 - $4.52$4.32
Blended Fair Value$4.12
Current Price$28.69
Upside-85.64%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.11%-1.88%0.150.030.120.050.130.120.100.020.010.01
YoY Growth--432.80%-76.69%124.92%-58.32%0.11%23.41%312.38%165.18%47.91%-96.44%
Dividend Yield--1.85%0.51%2.25%0.76%2.49%2.33%1.29%0.28%0.08%0.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)297.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)124.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)173.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)59.5737.2322.34
Cash Retained (M)173.86173.86173.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-59.57-37.23-22.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)114.29136.63151.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)986.72986.72986.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.260.28
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate1.11%2.11%3.11%
Fair Value$3.09$3.91$4.89
Upside / Downside-89.22%-86.36%-82.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)297.86304.14310.54317.08323.76330.58340.50
Payout Ratio41.63%51.30%60.98%70.65%80.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)124.00156.03189.36224.03260.07297.53314.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate1.11%2.11%3.11%
Year 1 PV (M)141.75143.15144.56
Year 2 PV (M)156.28159.39162.53
Year 3 PV (M)167.97173.00178.13
Year 4 PV (M)177.14184.25191.58
Year 5 PV (M)184.11193.39203.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,249.543,413.453,583.91
Equity Value (M)4,076.794,266.644,463.76
Shares Outstanding (M)986.72986.72986.72
Fair Value$4.13$4.32$4.52
Upside / Downside-85.60%-84.93%-84.23%

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