Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guanghui Logistics Co.Ltd (600603.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.49 - $33.59$15.73
Multi-Stage$9.55 - $10.46$10.00
Blended Fair Value$12.86
Current Price$8.98
Upside43.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.53%44.00%0.300.310.160.500.640.450.080.070.060.33
YoY Growth---1.19%93.40%-68.45%-20.96%41.89%471.45%11.96%12.39%-81.23%4,102.57%
Dividend Yield--4.20%4.36%2.25%12.88%13.42%7.82%1.47%1.41%0.74%5.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)405.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)258.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)146.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)81.0650.6630.40
Cash Retained (M)146.86146.86146.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-81.06-50.66-30.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)65.8096.20116.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,177.671,177.671,177.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate3.43%4.43%5.43%
Fair Value$9.49$15.73$33.59
Upside / Downside5.72%75.15%274.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)405.28423.22441.95461.51481.93503.26518.36
Payout Ratio63.76%69.01%74.26%79.51%84.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)258.42292.07328.18366.92408.45452.94479.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate3.43%4.43%5.43%
Year 1 PV (M)271.81274.44277.06
Year 2 PV (M)284.23289.76295.33
Year 3 PV (M)295.74304.40313.23
Year 4 PV (M)306.38318.40330.77
Year 5 PV (M)316.18331.76347.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,773.0210,254.7110,755.21
Equity Value (M)11,247.3511,773.4612,319.56
Shares Outstanding (M)1,177.671,177.671,177.67
Fair Value$9.55$10.00$10.46
Upside / Downside6.35%11.33%16.49%

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