Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Bright Dairy & Food Co.,Ltd (600597.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.39 - $8.74$6.89
Multi-Stage$9.55 - $10.50$10.02
Blended Fair Value$8.45
Current Price$8.39
Upside0.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.39%3.23%0.340.080.160.140.110.090.220.510.170.35
YoY Growth--334.80%-50.00%12.59%23.08%30.00%-60.60%-56.87%199.53%-51.11%41.03%
Dividend Yield--4.11%0.84%1.47%1.22%0.62%0.75%2.16%4.03%1.32%2.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)692.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)123.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)569.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)138.5886.6151.97
Cash Retained (M)569.71569.71569.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-138.58-86.61-51.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)431.13483.09517.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,399.671,399.671,399.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.350.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.350.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.430.46
WACC / Discount Rate6.96%6.96%6.96%
Growth Rate-0.37%0.63%1.63%
Fair Value$5.39$6.89$8.74
Upside / Downside-35.80%-17.87%4.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)692.90697.27701.68706.11710.57715.06736.51
Payout Ratio17.78%32.22%46.67%61.11%75.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)123.19224.68327.46431.51536.88643.55681.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.96%6.96%6.96%
Growth Rate-0.37%0.63%1.63%
Year 1 PV (M)207.98210.07212.16
Year 2 PV (M)280.58286.24291.96
Year 3 PV (M)342.26352.67363.29
Year 4 PV (M)394.17410.24426.79
Year 5 PV (M)437.37459.76483.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,700.6412,299.7512,923.14
Equity Value (M)13,363.0114,018.7314,700.40
Shares Outstanding (M)1,399.671,399.671,399.67
Fair Value$9.55$10.02$10.50
Upside / Downside13.79%19.38%25.18%

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