Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hundsun Technologies Inc. (600570.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.87 - $23.15$15.45
Multi-Stage$7.98 - $8.71$8.34
Blended Fair Value$11.89
Current Price$34.52
Upside-65.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.88%10.28%0.140.140.080.060.230.110.100.030.090.06
YoY Growth--6.57%68.89%40.03%-75.48%115.31%10.34%190.00%-61.54%44.44%12.50%
Dividend Yield--0.51%0.58%0.15%0.17%0.50%0.29%0.31%0.17%0.64%0.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,052.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)247.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)805.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)210.58131.6178.97
Cash Retained (M)805.57805.57805.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-210.58-131.61-78.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)594.99673.96726.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,827.821,827.821,827.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.370.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.370.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.460.500.53
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.87$15.45$23.15
Upside / Downside-68.52%-55.24%-32.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,052.901,121.331,194.221,271.841,354.511,442.561,485.83
Payout Ratio23.49%36.79%50.09%63.40%76.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)247.33412.56598.23806.301,038.891,298.301,374.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)371.62375.14378.67
Year 2 PV (M)485.39494.64503.97
Year 3 PV (M)589.29606.21623.45
Year 4 PV (M)683.93710.23737.29
Year 5 PV (M)769.90807.08845.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,685.8812,250.3212,836.35
Equity Value (M)14,586.0215,243.6215,925.41
Shares Outstanding (M)1,827.821,827.821,827.82
Fair Value$7.98$8.34$8.71
Upside / Downside-76.88%-75.84%-74.76%

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