Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Henan Yuguang Gold&Lead Co.,Ltd. (600531.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.17 - $147.55$100.98
Multi-Stage$18.02 - $19.71$18.85
Blended Fair Value$59.91
Current Price$12.97
Upside361.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS61.41%5.34%0.390.110.100.080.060.040.070.050.000.01
YoY Growth--252.82%4.42%31.40%43.33%57.89%-53.09%62.00%1,320.23%-56.67%-96.72%
Dividend Yield--5.28%1.61%1.70%1.47%0.98%0.89%1.43%0.69%0.04%0.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)873.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)317.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)555.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)174.73109.2165.52
Cash Retained (M)555.98555.98555.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-174.73-109.21-65.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)381.25446.78490.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,177.521,177.521,177.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.380.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.380.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.590.650.69
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$37.17$100.98$147.55
Upside / Downside186.58%678.54%1,037.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)873.64930.43990.911,055.321,123.911,196.971,232.88
Payout Ratio36.36%47.09%57.82%68.54%79.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)317.66438.13572.91723.36890.951,077.271,140.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)404.92408.76412.60
Year 2 PV (M)489.36498.68508.08
Year 3 PV (M)571.04587.43604.13
Year 4 PV (M)650.03675.03700.74
Year 5 PV (M)726.40761.48797.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,375.8419,263.4020,184.92
Equity Value (M)21,217.5822,194.7723,208.39
Shares Outstanding (M)1,177.521,177.521,177.52
Fair Value$18.02$18.85$19.71
Upside / Downside38.93%45.33%51.96%

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