Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Guizhou Guihang Automotive Components Co.,Ltd (600523.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.39 - $3.28$2.84
Multi-Stage$4.06 - $4.46$4.26
Blended Fair Value$3.55
Current Price$14.58
Upside-75.65%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.05%-4.79%0.130.130.140.210.170.150.150.140.170.20
YoY Growth---0.68%-7.64%-33.50%19.84%11.26%2.36%7.56%-15.85%-18.12%-0.84%
Dividend Yield--1.00%1.03%0.93%0.89%1.16%1.19%1.22%1.14%1.05%1.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)178.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)64.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)113.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.7122.3213.39
Cash Retained (M)113.92113.92113.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.71-22.32-13.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)78.2191.60100.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)394.34394.34394.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate-4.50%-3.50%-2.50%
Fair Value$2.39$2.84$3.28
Upside / Downside-83.58%-80.50%-77.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)178.55172.30166.26160.43154.81149.38153.87
Payout Ratio36.20%46.96%57.72%68.48%79.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)64.6380.9195.96109.86122.67134.45142.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate-4.50%-3.50%-2.50%
Year 1 PV (M)72.8373.5974.35
Year 2 PV (M)77.7579.3981.04
Year 3 PV (M)80.1282.6785.26
Year 4 PV (M)80.5383.9587.49
Year 5 PV (M)79.4483.6988.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,210.951,275.701,343.18
Equity Value (M)1,601.621,678.981,759.44
Shares Outstanding (M)394.34394.34394.34
Fair Value$4.06$4.26$4.46
Upside / Downside-72.14%-70.80%-69.40%

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