Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co., Ltd. (600522.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.80 - $38.91$24.59
Multi-Stage$11.68 - $12.78$12.22
Blended Fair Value$18.41
Current Price$18.92
Upside-2.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.60%14.38%0.250.170.160.130.110.130.130.120.050.05
YoY Growth--42.99%10.89%21.19%15.30%-10.77%-2.26%11.20%113.54%3.77%-19.48%
Dividend Yield--1.71%1.24%0.92%0.76%0.98%1.31%1.26%0.95%0.46%0.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,865.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)95.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,769.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)573.11358.20214.92
Cash Retained (M)2,769.662,769.662,769.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-573.11-358.20-214.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,196.552,411.462,554.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,534.333,534.333,534.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.620.680.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.620.680.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.710.75
WACC / Discount Rate9.57%9.57%9.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$16.80$24.59$38.91
Upside / Downside-11.18%29.99%105.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,865.563,051.823,250.193,461.453,686.453,926.074,043.85
Payout Ratio3.35%20.68%38.01%55.34%72.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)95.90631.041,235.331,915.522,678.923,533.463,740.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.57%9.57%9.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)570.50575.91581.32
Year 2 PV (M)1,009.691,028.931,048.34
Year 3 PV (M)1,415.451,456.081,497.49
Year 4 PV (M)1,789.661,858.481,929.27
Year 5 PV (M)2,134.092,237.172,344.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)34,374.9136,035.2337,759.09
Equity Value (M)41,294.3043,191.8045,159.70
Shares Outstanding (M)3,534.333,534.333,534.33
Fair Value$11.68$12.22$12.78
Upside / Downside-38.25%-35.41%-32.47%

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