Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nantong Jiangshan Agrochemical & Chemicals Co.,Ltd. (600389.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$177.85 - $209.75$196.47
Multi-Stage$318.46 - $351.30$334.56
Blended Fair Value$265.51
Current Price$26.10
Upside917.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.42%2.26%0.270.142.121.030.900.280.180.040.010.14
YoY Growth--90.19%-93.32%105.63%14.50%227.50%53.85%390.57%165.00%-90.32%-34.04%
Dividend Yield--1.80%1.06%7.73%3.27%5.99%2.06%1.38%0.29%0.11%1.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)478.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)162.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)315.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)95.6259.7635.86
Cash Retained (M)315.19315.19315.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-95.62-59.76-35.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)219.58255.43279.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)431.20431.20431.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.510.590.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.510.590.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.890.971.03
WACC / Discount Rate-19.19%-19.19%-19.19%
Growth Rate0.26%1.26%2.26%
Fair Value$177.85$196.47$209.75
Upside / Downside581.44%652.75%703.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)478.08484.10490.19496.35502.60508.92524.19
Payout Ratio34.07%45.26%56.44%67.63%78.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)162.89219.09276.68335.68396.12458.03484.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-19.19%-19.19%-19.19%
Growth Rate0.26%1.26%2.26%
Year 1 PV (M)268.43271.10273.78
Year 2 PV (M)415.32423.65432.05
Year 3 PV (M)617.36636.02655.05
Year 4 PV (M)892.58928.73965.97
Year 5 PV (M)1,264.511,328.841,395.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)133,862.13140,672.52147,757.33
Equity Value (M)137,320.33144,260.86151,479.94
Shares Outstanding (M)431.20431.20431.20
Fair Value$318.46$334.56$351.30
Upside / Downside1,120.16%1,181.83%1,245.97%

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