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Definitive Analysis

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Southwest Securities Co., Ltd. (600369.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.14 - $1.70$1.41
Multi-Stage$3.49 - $3.85$3.67
Blended Fair Value$2.54
Current Price$4.75
Upside-46.60%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.97%8.05%0.140.110.190.230.210.160.170.200.260.17
YoY Growth--24.76%-41.92%-14.69%8.69%34.70%-7.36%-17.76%-20.26%47.21%167.98%
Dividend Yield--3.23%2.86%4.98%5.22%4.48%3.43%2.98%4.68%4.11%2.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)922.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)251.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)670.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)184.42115.2769.16
Cash Retained (M)670.81670.81670.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-184.42-115.27-69.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)486.39555.55601.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,419.316,419.316,419.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.130.13
WACC / Discount Rate5.69%5.69%5.69%
Growth Rate-3.97%-2.97%-1.97%
Fair Value$1.14$1.41$1.70
Upside / Downside-75.97%-70.37%-64.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)922.12894.70868.09842.27817.23792.92816.71
Payout Ratio27.25%39.80%52.35%64.90%77.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)251.31356.11454.46546.65632.95713.63755.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.69%5.69%5.69%
Growth Rate-3.97%-2.97%-1.97%
Year 1 PV (M)333.46336.94340.41
Year 2 PV (M)398.49406.83415.26
Year 3 PV (M)448.83463.00477.46
Year 4 PV (M)486.63507.22528.46
Year 5 PV (M)513.77541.08569.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,203.2021,277.3022,396.61
Equity Value (M)22,384.3723,532.3724,727.74
Shares Outstanding (M)6,419.316,419.316,419.31
Fair Value$3.49$3.67$3.85
Upside / Downside-26.59%-22.82%-18.90%

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