Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Soho Fashion Group Co., Ltd. (600287.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.22 - $0.29$0.25
Multi-Stage$0.40 - $0.44$0.42
Blended Fair Value$0.34
Current Price$5.56
Upside-93.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.95%-7.24%0.040.090.040.120.090.080.080.070.070.06
YoY Growth---58.26%147.80%-70.04%35.31%12.50%0.00%14.29%0.00%16.67%-25.00%
Dividend Yield--0.82%1.79%0.68%2.32%1.62%1.47%1.20%1.04%0.76%0.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)24.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)21.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.973.111.86
Cash Retained (M)21.0821.0821.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.97-3.11-1.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.1117.9719.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)437.17437.17437.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.050.05
WACC / Discount Rate9.75%9.75%9.75%
Growth Rate-9.24%-8.24%-7.24%
Fair Value$0.22$0.25$0.29
Upside / Downside-96.09%-95.44%-94.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)24.8522.8020.9219.2017.6216.1716.65
Payout Ratio15.16%30.13%45.10%60.06%75.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.776.879.4311.5313.2214.5515.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.75%9.75%9.75%
Growth Rate-9.24%-8.24%-7.24%
Year 1 PV (M)6.196.266.33
Year 2 PV (M)7.667.838.00
Year 3 PV (M)8.448.729.01
Year 4 PV (M)8.729.119.51
Year 5 PV (M)8.659.149.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)135.65143.29151.26
Equity Value (M)175.31184.35193.77
Shares Outstanding (M)437.17437.17437.17
Fair Value$0.40$0.42$0.44
Upside / Downside-92.79%-92.42%-92.03%

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