Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Pudong Construction Co.,Ltd. (600284.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.27 - $76.43$71.63
Multi-Stage$11.94 - $13.04$12.48
Blended Fair Value$42.05
Current Price$10.03
Upside319.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.53%-0.89%0.470.300.270.200.180.190.140.130.220.33
YoY Growth--54.45%12.68%32.27%16.30%-4.99%32.31%8.78%-41.87%-32.21%-36.59%
Dividend Yield--7.31%5.05%3.86%2.89%2.88%2.86%1.72%1.95%2.57%4.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)372.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)335.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)37.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)74.5846.6127.97
Cash Retained (M)37.1837.1837.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-74.58-46.61-27.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)-37.40-9.439.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)970.27970.27970.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$35.27$71.63$76.43
Upside / Downside251.61%614.12%662.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)372.89397.12422.94450.43479.71510.89526.21
Payout Ratio90.03%90.02%90.02%90.01%90.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)335.71357.51380.72405.44431.76459.80486.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)332.79335.94339.10
Year 2 PV (M)329.89336.17342.51
Year 3 PV (M)327.02336.40345.97
Year 4 PV (M)324.17336.63349.46
Year 5 PV (M)321.34336.87352.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,947.4510,427.9210,926.77
Equity Value (M)11,582.6612,109.9412,656.79
Shares Outstanding (M)970.27970.27970.27
Fair Value$11.94$12.48$13.04
Upside / Downside19.02%24.44%30.06%

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