Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Qianjiang Water Resources Development Co., Ltd. Class A (600283.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44.38 - $86.04$80.63
Multi-Stage$13.41 - $14.68$14.03
Blended Fair Value$47.33
Current Price$9.33
Upside407.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.33%1.48%0.300.200.190.190.110.120.140.150.250.22
YoY Growth--52.55%3.51%-2.18%77.78%-11.87%-9.02%-7.65%-41.59%15.23%-15.33%
Dividend Yield--3.05%2.23%2.14%1.99%1.29%1.70%1.33%1.65%2.89%2.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)233.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)94.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)139.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)46.7429.2117.53
Cash Retained (M)139.40139.40139.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-46.74-29.21-17.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)92.66110.19121.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)540.20540.20540.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$44.38$80.63$86.04
Upside / Downside375.65%764.23%822.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)233.71248.90265.08282.31300.66320.20329.81
Payout Ratio40.35%50.28%60.21%70.14%80.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)94.31125.15159.61198.01240.74288.18305.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)116.60117.71118.81
Year 2 PV (M)138.55141.19143.85
Year 3 PV (M)160.15164.75169.43
Year 4 PV (M)181.41188.38195.56
Year 5 PV (M)202.32212.10222.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,445.836,757.167,080.41
Equity Value (M)7,244.867,581.287,930.31
Shares Outstanding (M)540.20540.20540.20
Fair Value$13.41$14.03$14.68
Upside / Downside43.75%50.42%57.35%

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