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Definitive Analysis

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Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.,Ltd. (600219.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40.74 - $88.18$82.64
Multi-Stage$13.33 - $14.60$13.95
Blended Fair Value$48.30
Current Price$3.96
Upside1,119.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.29%24.10%0.220.040.060.060.050.050.050.040.020.02
YoY Growth--436.82%-37.17%13.40%10.00%0.00%7.65%20.00%63.15%0.00%-2.28%
Dividend Yield--5.72%1.18%1.91%1.40%1.50%2.52%1.73%1.37%0.82%0.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,112.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,002.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,109.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,022.47639.04383.43
Cash Retained (M)3,109.943,109.943,109.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,022.47-639.04-383.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,087.472,470.902,726.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11,529.9311,529.9311,529.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$40.74$82.64$88.18
Upside / Downside928.88%1,986.82%2,126.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,112.345,444.655,798.556,175.456,576.867,004.357,214.48
Payout Ratio39.17%49.33%59.50%69.67%79.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,002.402,686.083,450.184,302.275,250.546,303.926,673.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,500.382,524.082,547.78
Year 2 PV (M)2,989.603,046.553,104.03
Year 3 PV (M)3,470.203,569.823,671.32
Year 4 PV (M)3,942.284,093.894,249.83
Year 5 PV (M)4,405.954,618.764,839.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)136,439.81143,029.90149,872.22
Equity Value (M)153,748.21160,882.99168,284.88
Shares Outstanding (M)11,529.9311,529.9311,529.93
Fair Value$13.33$13.95$14.60
Upside / Downside236.74%252.36%268.57%

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