Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Lotus Health Group Company (600186.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.07 - $3.49$2.69
Multi-Stage$2.52 - $2.76$2.64
Blended Fair Value$2.66
Current Price$5.81
Upside-54.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.64%3.87%0.020.000.000.010.010.010.010.010.000.00
YoY Growth--6,411.87%-91.25%-74.72%-3.68%4.14%100.64%-27.91%2,393.93%-92.38%-63.19%
Dividend Yield--0.28%0.01%0.11%0.46%0.45%0.38%0.35%0.44%0.01%0.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)290.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)262.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.0536.2821.77
Cash Retained (M)262.87262.87262.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.05-36.28-21.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)204.82226.59241.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,703.171,703.171,703.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate8.57%8.57%8.57%
Growth Rate1.87%2.87%3.87%
Fair Value$2.07$2.69$3.49
Upside / Downside-64.31%-53.66%-40.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)290.25298.57307.14315.95325.01334.33344.36
Payout Ratio9.43%25.55%41.66%57.77%73.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.3876.28127.95182.53240.14300.90318.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.57%8.57%8.57%
Growth Rate1.87%2.87%3.87%
Year 1 PV (M)69.5770.2670.94
Year 2 PV (M)106.46108.56110.68
Year 3 PV (M)138.53142.65146.85
Year 4 PV (M)166.23172.86179.68
Year 5 PV (M)189.99199.50209.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,613.413,794.293,982.33
Equity Value (M)4,284.194,488.104,699.86
Shares Outstanding (M)1,703.171,703.171,703.17
Fair Value$2.52$2.64$2.76
Upside / Downside-56.71%-54.64%-52.50%

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